It is no coincidence that most wealthy people invest in the stock
market. While fortunes can be both made and lost, investing in stocks is
one of the best ways to create financial security, independence, and
generational wealth. Whether you are just beginning to save or already
have a nest egg for retirement, your money should be working as
efficiently and diligently for you as you did to earn it. To succeed in
this, however, it is important to start with a solid understanding of
how stock market investment works. This article will guide you through
the process of making investment decisions and put you on the right path
to becoming a successful investor. This article discusses investing in
stocks specifically. For stock trading, see How to Trade Stocks. For mutual funds, see How to Decide Whether to Buy Stocks or Mutual Funds.
Part 1 of 3: Establishing Your Goals and Expectations
1
Make a list of things you want. To set your goals,
you’ll need to have an idea of what things or experiences you want to
have in your life that require money. For example, what lifestyle do you
want to have once you retire? Do you enjoy traveling, nice cars, or
fine dining? Do you have only modest needs? Use this list to help you
set your goals in the next step.
Making a list will also help if you are saving for your children’s
future. For example, do you want to send your children to a private
school or college? Do you want to buy them cars? Would you prefer public
schools and using the extra money for something else? Having a clear
idea of what you value will help you establish goals for savings and
investment.
2
Set your financial goals. In order to structure an
investment plan, you must first understand why you are investing. In
other words, where would you like to be financially, and how much do you
have to invest to get there? Your goals should be as specific as
possible, so that you have the best idea of what you’ll need to do to
achieve them.
Popular financial goals include buying a home, paying for your child’s college, amassing a “rainy day” emergency fund, and saving for retirement.
Rather than having a general goal such as “own a home,” set a specific
goal: “Save $63,000 for a down-payment on a $311,000 house.” (Most home
loans require a down payment of between 20% and 25% of the purchase
price in order to attract the most affordable interest rate.)
Most investment advisers recommend that you save at least eight
times your peak salary for retirement. This will allow you to retire on
about 85% of your pre-retirement annual income.
For example, if you retire at a salary of $80,000, you should strive
for an income of at least $64,000 annually in the early stages of
retirement.
Use a college cost calculator to determine how much you will need to
save for your children’s college, how much parents are expected to
contribute and the various types of financial aid your children may
qualify for, based on your income and net worth. Remember that costs
vary widely depending on the location and type of school (public,
private, etc.). Also remember that college expenses include not only
tuition, but also fees, room and board, transportation, books and
supplies.
Remember to factor time into your goals. This is especially true for
long-term projects such as retirement funds. For example: John begins
saving at age 20 using an IRA (Individual Retirement Account) earning an
8% return. He saves $3,000 a year for the next ten years, then stops
adding to the account but keeps the IRA invested in the market. By the
time John is 65, he will have $642,000 built up.
Many websites have “savings calculators” that can show you how much
an investment will grow over a given length of time at a specified
interest rate. While they’re not a substitute for professional financial
advice, these calculators can give you a good place to start.
Once you determine your goals, you can use the difference between
where you are today and where you want to be to determine the rate of
return needed to get there.
3
Determine your risk tolerance. Acting against your
need for returns is the risk required to earn them. Your risk tolerance
is a function of two variables: your ability to take risks and your
willingness to do so. There are several important questions you should ask yourself during this step, such as:
What stage of life are you in? In other words, are you near the low end or closer to the peak of your income-earning potential?
Are you willing to accept more risk to earn greater returns?
What are the time horizons of your investment goals?
How much liquidity (i.e. resources that can easily be converted to
cash) do you need for your shorter-term goals and to maintain a proper
cash reserve? Don't invest in stocks until you have at least six to
twelve months of living expenses in a savings account as an emergency
fund in case you lose your job. If you have to liquidate stocks after
holding them less than a year, you're merely speculating, not investing.
If the risk profile of a potential investment does not conform to your tolerance level, it's not a viable option. Discard it.
Your asset allocation should vary based on your stage of life. For
example, you might have a much higher percentage of your investment
portfolio in stocks when you are younger. Also, if you have a stable,
well-paying career, your job is like a bond: you can depend on it for
steady, long-term income. This allows you to allocate more of your
portfolio to stocks. Conversely, if you have a "stock-like" job with
unpredictable income such as investment broker or stock trader, you
should allocate less to stocks and more to the stability of bonds. While
stocks allow your portfolio to grow faster, they also pose more risks.
As you get older, you can transition into more stable investments, such
as bonds.
4
Learn about the market. Spend as much time as you can
reading about the stock market and the larger economy. Listen to the
insights and predictions of experts to develop a sense of the state of
the economy and what types of stocks are performing well. There are
several classic investment books that will give you a good start:
The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham are excellent starter texts on investing.
The Interpretation of Financial Statements by Benjamin Graham and Spencer B. Meredith. This is a short and concise treatise on reading financial statements.
Expectations Investing, by Alfred Rappaport, Michael J.
Mauboussin. This highly readable book provides a new perspective on
security analysis and is a good complement to Graham's books.
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (and other writings) by Philip
Fisher. Warren Buffett once said he was 85 percent Graham and 15
percent Fisher, and that is probably understating the influence of
Fisher on shaping his investment style.
"The Essays of Warren Buffett," a collection of Buffett's annual
letters to shareholders. Buffett made his entire fortune investing, and
has lots of very useful advice for people who'd like to follow in his
footsteps. Buffett has provided these to read online free:
www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html.
The Theory of Investment Value, by John Burr Williams is one of the finest books on stock valuation.
One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street, both by Peter Lynch, a highly successful money manager. These are easy to read, informative and entertaining.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by William Lefevre use real-life examples to illustrate the dangers of emotional overreaction and greed in the stock market.
You can also enroll in basic or beginner investment courses offered
online. Sometimes these are offered free by financial companies such as
Morningstar and T.D. Ameritrade. Several universities, including Stanford, offer online investment courses.
Community centers and adult education centers may also offer
financial courses. These are often low-cost or free and can provide you
with a solid overview of investment. Look online to see if there are any
in your area.
Practice by “paper trading.” Pretend to purchase and sell stocks,
using the closing prices each day. You can literally do this on paper,
or you can sign up for a free practice account online at places such as
How the Market Works. Practicing will help you hone your strategy and
knowledge without risking real money.
5
Formulate your expectations for the stock market.
Whether you are a professional or a novice, this step is difficult,
because it is both art and science. It requires that you develop the
ability to assemble a tremendous amount of financial data about market
performance. You also must develop “a feel” for what these data do and
do not signify.
This is why many investors buy the stock of products that they know and use.
Consider the products you own in your home. From what’s in the living
room to what’s inside the refrigerator, you have first-hand knowledge of
these products and can quickly and intuitively assess their performance
compared with that of competitors.
For such household products, try to envision economic conditions
that might lead you to stop purchasing them, to upgrade, or to
downgrade.
If economic conditions are such that people are likely to buy a
product you are very familiar with, this might be a good bet for an
investment.
6
Focus your thinking. While trying to develop general
expectations about the market and the types of companies that might be
successful given present or expected economic conditions, it's important
to establish predictions in some specific areas including:
The direction of interest rates and inflation, and how these may affect any fixed-income or equity purchases.
When interest rates are low, more consumers and businesses have access
to money. Consumers have more money to make purchases, so they usually
buy more. This leads to higher company revenues, which allows companies
to invest in expansion. Thus, lower interest rates lead to higher stock
prices. In contrast, higher interest rates can decrease stock prices.
High interest rates make it more difficult or expensive to borrow money.
Consumers spend less, and companies have less money to invest. Growth
may stall or decline.
The business cycle of an economy, along with a broad macroeconomic view. Inflation is an overall rise in prices over a period of time. Moderate
or “controlled” inflation is usually considered good for the economy and
the stock market. Low interest rates combined with moderate inflation
usually have a positive effect on the market. High interest rates and
deflation usually cause the stock market to fall.
Favorable conditions within specific sectors of an economy, along with a targeted microeconomic view.
Certain industries are usually considered to do well in periods of
economic growth, such as automobiles, construction, and airlines. In
strong economies, consumers are likely to feel confident about their
futures, so they spend more money and make more purchases. These
industries and companies are known as “cyclical.”
Other industries perform well in poor or falling economies. These
industries and companies are usually not as affected by the economy. For
example, utilities and insurance companies are usually less affected by
consumer confidence, because people still have to pay for electricity
and health insurance. These industries and companies are known as
“defensive” or “counter-cyclical.”
Part 2 of 3: Making Your Investments
1
Determine your asset allocations. In other words, determine how much of your money you will put in which types of investments.
Decide how much money will be invested in stocks, how much in bonds,
how much in more aggressive alternatives and how much you will hold as
cash and cash equivalents (certificates of deposit, Treasury bills,
etc.).
The goal here is to determine a starting point based on your market expectations and risk tolerance.
2
Select your investments. Your "risk and return"
objectives will eliminate some of the vast number of options. As an
investor, you can choose to purchase stock from individual companies,
such as Apple or McDonalds. This is the most basic type of investing. A
bottom-up approach occurs when you buy and sell each stock independently
based on your projections of their future prices and dividends.
Investing directly in stocks avoids fees charged by mutual funds but
requires more effort to ensure adequate diversification.
Select stocks that best meet your investment needs. If you are in a
high income tax bracket, have minimal short- or intermediate-term income
needs, and have high risk tolerance, select mostly growth stocks that
pay little or no dividends but have above-average expected growth rates.
Low-cost index funds usually charge less in fees than actively-managed funds.
They offer more security because they model their investments on
established, well respected indexes. For example, an index fund might
select a performance benchmark consisting of the stocks inside the
S&P 500 index. The fund would purchase most or all of the same
assets, allowing it to equal (but not exceed) the performance of the
index. This would be considered a relatively safe but not terribly
exciting investment. Advocates of active stock picking turn their noses
up at such investments. Index funds can actually be very good “starters” for new investors.
Buying and holding "no-load," low-expense index funds and using a
dollar-cost-averaging strategy has been shown to outperform many
more-active mutual funds over the long term. Choose index funds with the
lowest expense ratio and annual turnover. For investors with less than
$100,000 to invest, index funds are hard to beat when viewed within a
long time period. If you have more than $100,000 to invest, however,
individual stocks are generally preferable to mutual funds, because all
funds charge fees proportional to the size of the asset. Even a very
low cost index fund charging only a 0.05% annual expense ratio will
cost a significant amount of money over time. Assuming 10% average
annual stock return, a 0.05% expense ratio on a $1,000,000 initial
investment costs $236,385 over 30 years. (This compares to an investment
balance of $31,500,000 after 30 years.) See Decide Whether to Buy Stocks or Mutual Funds for more information whether individual stocks or mutual funds are better for you.
An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of index fund that trades
like a stock. ETFs are unmanaged portfolios (where stocks are not
continuously bought and sold as with actively managed funds) and can
often be traded without commission. You can buy ETFs that are based on a
specific index, or based on a specific industry or commodity, such as
gold. ETFs are another good choice for beginners.
You can also invest in actively managed mutual funds. These funds
pool money from many investors and put it primarily into stocks and
bonds. Individual investors buy shares of the portfolio.
Fund managers usually create portfolios with particular goals in mind,
such as long-term growth. However, because these funds are actively
managed (meaning managers are constantly buying and selling stocks to
achieve the fund’s goal), their fees can be higher. Mutual fund expense
ratios can end up hurting your rate of return and impeding your
financial progress.
Some companies offer specialized portfolios for retirement
investors. These are “asset allocation" or "target date" funds that
automatically adjust their holdings based on your age. For example, your
portfolio might be more heavily weighted towards equities when you are
younger and automatically transfer more of your investments into
fixed-income securities as you get older. In other words, they do for
you what you might be expected to do yourself as you get older.
Be aware that these funds typically incur greater expenses than simple
index funds and ETFs, but they perform a service the latter investments
do not.
It’s important to consider transaction costs and fees when choosing
your investments. Costs and fees can eat into your returns and reduce
your gains. It is vital to know what costs you will be liable for when
you purchase, hold, or sell stock. Common transaction costs for stocks
include commissions, bid-ask spread, slippage, SEC Section 31 fees ,
and capital gains tax. For funds, costs may include management fees,
sales loads, redemption fees, exchange fees, account fees, 12b-1 fees,
and operating expenses.
3
Determine the intrinsic value and the right price to pay for each stock you are interested in.
Intrinsic value is how much a stock is worth, which can be different
from the current stock price. The right price to pay is generally a
fraction of the intrinsic value, to allow a margin of safety (MOS). MOS
may range from 20% to 60% depending on the degree of uncertainty in your
intrinsic value estimate. There are many techniques used to value
stocks:
Dividend discount model: the value of a stock is the present value
of all its future dividends. Thus, the value of a stock = dividend per
share divided by the difference between the discount rate and the
dividend growth rate.
For example, suppose Company A pays an annual dividend of $1 per share,
which is expected to grow at 7% per year. If your personal cost of
capital (discount rate) is 12%, Company A stock is worth $1/(.12-.07) =
$20 per share.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) model: the value of a stock is the
present value of all its future cash flows. Thus, DCF = CF1/(1+r)^1 +
CF2/(1+r)^2 + ... + CFn/(1+r)^n, where CFn = cash flow for a given time
period n, r = discount rate. A typical DCF calculation projects a growth
rate for annual free cash flow (operating cash flow less capital
expenditures) for the next 10 years to calculate a growth value and
estimate a terminal growth rate thereafter to calculate a terminal
value, then sum up the two to arrive at the DCF value of the stock. For
example, if Company A's current FCF is $2/share, estimated FCF growth is
7% for the next 10 years and 4% thereafter, using a discount rate of
12%, the stock has a growth value of $15.69 and a terminal value of
$16.46 and is worth $32.15 a share.
Comparables Methods: These methods value a stock based on its price
relative to earnings (P/E), book value (P/B), sales (P/S), or cash flow
(P/CF). It compares the stock's current price ratios with an appropriate
benchmark and the stock's historic average ratios to determine the
price at which the stock should sell.
4
Purchase your stock. Once you've decided which stocks to buy, it is time to purchase your stocks. Find a brokerage firm that meets your needs and place your orders.
You can select a discount broker, who will simply order the stocks
you want to purchase. You can also choose a full-service brokerage firm,
which will cost more but will also provide information and guidance.
Do your own due diligence by checking out their websites and looking at
reviews online to find the best broker for you. The most important
factor to consider here is how much commission is charged and what other
fees are involved. Some brokers offer free stock trades if your
portfolio meets a certain minimum value (e.g. Merrill Edge Preferred
Rewards), or if you invest within a select list of stocks whose
companies pay the transaction costs (e.g. loyal3).
Some companies offer direct stock purchase plans (DSPPs) that allow
you to purchase their stock without a broker. If you are planning on
buying and holding or dollar cost averaging,
this may be your best option. Search online or call or write the
company whose stock you wish to buy to inquire whether they offer such a
plan. Pay attention to the fee schedule and select the plans that charge no or minimal fees.
5
Build a portfolio containing between five and 20 different stocks for diversification. Diversify across different sectors, industries, countries, company size, and style ("growth" vs. "value").
6
Hold for the long term, five to ten years or preferably longer.
Avoid the temptation to sell when the market has a bad day, month or
year. The long-range direction of the stock market is always up. On the
other hand, avoid the temptation to take profit (sell) even if your
stocks have gone up 50 percent or more. As long as the fundamental
conditions of the company are still sound, do not sell (unless you
desperately need the money. It does make sense to sell, however, if the
stock price appreciates well above its value (see Step 3 of this
Section), or if the fundamentals have drastically changed since you
bought the stock so that the company is unlikely to be profitable
anymore.
7
Invest regularly and systematically.Dollar cost averaging forces you to buy low and sell high and is a simple, sound strategy. Set aside a percentage of each paycheck to buy stocks.
Remember that bear markets are for buying. If the stock market drops
by at least 20%, move more cash into stocks. Should the market drop by
50%, move all available discretionary cash and bonds into stocks. That
may sound scary, but the market has always bounced back, even from the
crash that occurred between 1929 and 1932. The most successful investors
have bought stocks when they were "on sale."
Part 3 of 3: Monitoring and Maintaining Your Portfolio
1
Establish benchmarks. It is important to establish
appropriate benchmarks in order to measure the performance of your
stocks, as compared to your expectations. Develop standards for how much
growth you require of each specific investment in order to consider it
worth keeping.
Typically these benchmarks are based on the performance of various
market indexes. These allow you to determine whether your investments
are performing at least as well as the market overall.
It may be counter-intuitive, but just because a stock is going up
does not mean it is a good investment, especially if it is going up more
slowly than similar stocks. Conversely, not all shrinking investments
are losers (when similar investments are doing even worse).
2
Compare performance to expectations. You must compare
the performance of each investment to the expectations you established
for it in order to determine its worth. This goes for assessing your
other asset allocation decisions as well.
Investments that do not meet expectations should be sold so your
money can be invested elsewhere, unless you have good reason to believe
your expectations will soon be met.
Give your investments time to work out. One-year or even three-year
performance is meaningless to the long-term investor. The stock market
is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long
term.
3
Be vigilant and update your expectations. Once you have purchased stock, you must periodically monitor the performance of your investments.
Circumstances and opinions change. This is a part of investing. The
key is to properly process and assess all new information and implement
any changes according to the guidelines set in the previous steps.
Consider whether your market expectations were correct. If not, why
not? Use these insights to update your expectations and investment
portfolio.
Consider whether your portfolio is performing within your risk
parameters. It may be that your stocks have done well, but the
investments are more volatile and risky than you had anticipated. If you
aren't comfortable with these risks, it's probably time to change
investments.
Consider whether you are able to achieve the objectives you set. It
may be that your investments are growing within acceptable risk
parameters but are growing too slowly to meet your goals. If this is the
case, it's time to consider new investments.
4
Guard against the temptation to trade excessively.
After all, you are an investor, not a speculator. In addition, every
time you take a profit, you incur capital-gains taxes. Besides, every
trade comes with a broker's fee.
Avoid stock tips. Do your own research and do not seek or pay
attention to any stock tips, even from insiders. Warren Buffett says
that he throws away all letters that are mailed to him recommending one
stock or another. He says that these salesmen are being paid to say good
things about a stock so that the company can raise money.
Don't pay too much attention to media coverage of the stock market.
Focus on investing for the long term (at least 20 years), and don't be
distracted by short-term price gyrations.
5
Consult a reputable broker, banker, or investment adviser if you need to.
Never stop learning, and continue to read as many books and articles as
possible written by experts who have successfully invested in the types
of markets in which you have an interest. You will also want to read
articles helping you with the emotional and psychological aspects of
investing, to help you deal with the ups and downs of participating in
the stock market. It is important for you to know how to make the
smartest choices possible when investing in stocks, and even when you do
make wise decisions you should be prepared to deal with losses in the
event that they occur.
Tips
Before buying stocks, you might want to try "paper trading" for a
while. This is simulated stock trading. Keep track of stock prices, and
make records of the buying and selling decisions you would make if you
were actually trading. Check to see if your investment decisions would
have paid off. Once you have a system worked out that seems to be
succeeding, and you've gotten comfortable with how the market functions,
then try trading stocks for real.
Information is the lifeblood of successful investment in the stock
and fixed-income markets. The key is to stay disciplined in implementing
your research and in assessing its performance by monitoring and
adjusting.
Be mindful of your biases and do not let emotion dictate your
decisions. Trust in yourself and the process, and you will be well on
your way to becoming a successful investor.
Remember that you are not trading pieces of paper that go up and
down in value. You are buying shares of a business. The health and
profitability of the business and the price you will pay are the only
two factors that should influence your decision.
Look for chances to buy high-quality stocks at temporarily low valuations. That is the essence of value investing.
Don't look at the value of your portfolio more than once a month. If
you get caught up in the emotions of Wall Street, it will only tempt
you to sell what could be an excellent long-term investment. Before you
buy a stock, ask yourself, "if this goes down, am I going to want to
sell or am I going to want to buy more of it?" Don't buy it if your
answer is the former.
The goal of your financial adviser/broker
is to keep you as a client so that they can continue to make money off
of you. They tell you to diversify so that your portfolio follows the
Dow and the S&P 500. That way, they will always have an excuse when
it goes down in value. The average broker/adviser has very little
knowledge of the underlying economics of business. Warren Buffett is
famous for saying, "Risk is for people who don't know what they're
doing."
Wall Street focuses on the short-term. This is because
it is difficult to make predictions about future earnings, especially
far into the future. Most analysts project earnings for up to ten years
and use discounted cash flow analysis to set target prices. You can beat the market only if you hold a stock for many years.
Buy
companies that have little or no competition. Airlines, retailers and
auto manufacturers are generally considered bad long-term investments,
because they are in fiercely competitive industries. This is reflected
by low profit margins in their income statements. In general, stay away
from seasonal or trendy industries like retail and regulated industries
like utilities and airlines, unless they have shown consistent earnings
and revenue growth over a long period of time. Few have.
Understand why blue chips are good investments: their quality is
based on a history of consistent revenue and earnings growth. Being able
to identify such companies before the crowd does will permit you to
reap larger rewards. Learn to be a 'bottom up' investor.
Warnings
Invest only money you can afford to lose. Stocks can go down sharply
over the short term, and even an investment that appears smart can go
bad.
When it comes to money, people may lie to save their pride. When
someone gives you a hot tip, remember that it is just an opinion.
Consider the source.
Do not attempt to time the market by guessing when stocks are ready
to reverse direction. Nobody (other than liars) can time the market.
Don't blindly feed the dogs. In other words, do not buy stocks that
have had low returns and appear cheap. Most cheap stocks are cheap for a
reason. Just because a stock that was trading at above $100 and is now
trading at $1 does not mean that it can't possibly go lower. All stocks
can go to zero, and many have.
Do not day-trade, swing-trade, or otherwise trade stocks for very
short-term profits. Remember, the more frequently you trade, the more
commissions you incur, which will reduce any gains you make. Also,
short-term gains are taxed more heavily than long-term (more than
one-year) gains. The best reason to avoid ultra-short-term trades is
that success in that area requires a great deal of skill, knowledge and
nerve, to say nothing of luck. It is not for the inexperienced.
Do not use technical analysis, which is a technique for traders, not
investors. Its viability as an investment tool is debated long and
loudly.
Stick with stocks, and stay away from options and derivatives, which
are speculations, not investments. You are more likely to do well with
stocks. With options and derivatives you are far more likely to lose
money.
Do not buy stocks on margin. Stocks may fluctuate widely without
notice, and using leverage can wipe you out. You don't want to buy
stocks on margin, watch stocks plunge 50 percent or so, wiping you out,
and then bounce right back. Buying stocks on margin is not investing,
but speculating.
Don't blindly trust the investment advice of anyone, especially
someone who will make money from your trades. This could apply to
brokers, advisers or analysts.
Avoid "momentum investing", the practice of buying the hottest
stocks that have had the biggest run recently. This is pure speculation,
not investing, and it does not work consistently. Just ask anyone who
tried it with the hottest tech stocks during the late 1990s.
Do not engage in insider trading. If you trade stocks using inside
information before the information is made public, you may face
prosecution for felony crimes. No matter how much money you could
potentially make, it is insignificant compared to the legal troubles you
could get into.